Dichotomy of value at risk and prudent value concepts in financial risk management

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.46299/j.isjmef.20260502.05

Keywords:

Value at Risk, Mortgage Lending Value, Prudent Value, Financial Risk Management, Key Risk Metrics, Stochastic Mode

Abstract

This paper examines two main paradigms of financial risk management, i.e., Value at Risk and Prudent Value. Analyzed are the historical roots of these key concepts, their foundational principles, the main focus of application, and other particulars. Demonstrated is fundamental trade-off between these key risk metrics in financial management as a balance between market sensitivity and its long-term stability. Underlined is also the key role of these risk measures in international financial regulation, including Basel 3.1 Accord and the European Prudent legislation framework. Particular attention was given to a developed stochastic approach to a determination of extreme assets value evolving over time that includes key parameters needed to describe actual market dynamics. In its core model developed integrates the advantages of Value at Risk and prudent Value methodologies, avoiding their main limitations. The model was verified and tested based on processing vast experimental data on residential property market evolution in Ukraine and the United Kingdom

References

Abad P., et al (2014). A comprehensive review of Value at Risk methodologies. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.srfe.2013.06.001.

AFME (2013). Joint industry response to EBA discussion paper on draft regulatory standards on prudent valuation. Retrieved on 22.01.2026. Available at: https://www.afme.eu/publications/consultation-responses/afme-joint-industry-response-to-eba-discussion-paper-on-draft-regulatory-standards-on-prudent-valuation/.

Amir A. J. (2012). "Entropic value-at-risk: A new coherent risk measure". Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications. 155 (3): 1105–1123. doi:10.1007/s10957-011-9968-2.

Baldzhy, M., et al (2023). Risk Management Strategies in the Global Business Environment: Analysis of Complex Dependencies and Effectiveness of Measures. Economic Affairs, 68(04): 2095- 2103.

Barczy, M., et al (2022). Probability equivalent level of Value at Risk and higher-order Expected Shortfalls. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2022.11.004/

Beasley M., et al. (2023). An Evolving Risk Landscape: Insights from a Decade of Surveys

of Executives and Risk Professionals. Journal of Risk and Financial Management 16: 29. Retrieved on 04.01.2025. Available at: https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16010029.

Bernstein P.L. (1998). Against the Gods. The Remarkable Story of Risk.(1998). John Wiley @ Sons Inc., 1998.- 435 p.

BPI (2023). Hopper G. Bank Policy Institute. Why is the FRTB Expected Shortfall Calculation Designed as It Is? Retrieved on 21.02. 2026. Available at: https://bpi.com/why-is-the-frtb-expected-shortfall-calculation-designed-as-it-is/

Burston B., Burrell A. (2015), What is Fair Value? IPF Short Paper 24. Investment Property Forum: London. Available at: https://www.ipf.org.uk/resourceLibrary/what-is-fair-value---april-2015--short-paper.html (Accessed on 15.01.2025).

Cardozo, C., et al (2017), Prudent Value Methodologies and Real Estate Lending. Report for the Property Industry Alliance. London: Investment Property Forum / Commercial Real Estate Finance Council Europe.Available at: http://www.ipf.org.uk/asset/D05FA2C5-487D-4C76997B57F3A3D72BAD/ (Accessed on 15.01.2025);

Coleman T. (2012). Quantitative Risk Management. J. Wiley & Sons, New York. – 576 p

Cont R. et al (2010). Robustness and Sensitivity Analysis of Risk Measurement Procedures. Quantitative Finance. 10 (6): 593–606. doi:10.1080/14697681003685597

Cortes G. C. (2022). Financial and Economic Indicators: Value at Risk (VaR). Mercados y Negocios, Year 23, N. 45, January-April 2022. https://doi.org/10.32870/myn.vi45.7665.g6726.

COSO. (2017). Enterprise Risk Management - Integrating with Strategy and Performance, COSO, 2017. Retrieved on 06.01.2026. Available at: https://www.coso.org/_files/ugd/3059fc_61ea5985b03c4293960642fdce408eaa.pdf.

Courage O.-O., Omogbeme A. (2025). Risk management frameworks for financial institutions in a rapidly changing economic landscape. IJSR, 2025, 14(01), 1182-1204. Retrieved on 05/01/2026. Available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.30574/ijsra.2025.14.1.0155

Crosby N. and Hughes C. (2011), The basis of valuations for secured commercial property lending in the UK. Journal of European Real Estate Research. Vol 4 Issue 3: pp. 225 – 242

Crosby N., Hordijk A. (2021), Approaches for Prudent Property Valuation across Europe. IVSC, TEGoVA, RICS, Independent Research.- 90 p.

Crosby N., Hordijk A. (2023). The Implementation of Long-Term Prudent Valuation Models Across the UK and Mainland Europe for Financial Regulation Purposes. A Research Report funded jointly by the Investment Property Forum Research Programme and the Property Research Trust. – 59 p., available at: file:///C:/Users/user/Downloads/The-implementation-of-long-term-prudent-valuation-models-across-the-UK-and-Mainland-Europe-for-financial-regulation-purposes-March-2023-Report%20(3).pdf (accessed on 14.04.2024).

Crouhy M., et al (2023). The Essentials of Risk Management, 3rd ed., McGraw-Hill Education, 2023.- 640 p.

Damodaran A. (2005). Value at Risk: Beyond Betas. Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 61, No. 2, pp. 38-43, March/April 2005, Retrieved on 08.01.2005. Available at: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/valrisk/ch7.pdf

EBA. (2014). Final regulatory technical standards on prudent valuation under Article 105(14) of Regulation (EU) No 575/2013. Retrieved on 18.01.2026, Available at: https://www.eba.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/10180/642449/1d93ef17-d7c5-47a6-bdbc-cfdb2cf1d072/EBA-RTS-2014-06%20RTS%20on%20Prudent%20Valuation.pdf?retry=1.

EBA (2024). Consultation Paper EBA/CP/2024/01/rev1. Amending Draft Regulatory Technical Standards on prudent valuation under Article 105(14) of Regulation (EU) No 575/2013. Retrieved on 22.01.2026. Available at: https://www.eba.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2024-01/a44040b4-da19-4beb-ad2d-935d9f2cd1a0/Consultation%20paper%20on%20amendments%20to%20the%20RTS%20on%20Prudent%20Valuation%20%28EBA-CP-2024-001%29.pdf

Einhorn D. (2008), "Private Profits and Socialized Risk" (PDF), GARP Risk Review, 2008.

EUR (2013). Regulation (EU) No 575/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 26 June 2013 on prudential requirements for credit institutions and investment firms and amending Regulation (EU) No 648/2012. Text with EEA relevance, available at: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex%3A32013R0575 (accessed on 12 April 2024).

Franco M. F, et al (2023). RCVaR: an Economic Approach to Estimate Cyberattacks Costs using Data from Industry Reports. Retrieved on 30.01.2026. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/372547631_RCVaR_an_Economic_Approach_to_Estimate_Cyberattacks_Costs_using_Data_from_Industry_Reports/figures?lo=1.

Grimman W. (2017), Mortgage Lending Value. VerbandDeutcherPfandbriefbanken, e.v., Band 49.- 296 p.

Holton G. A. (2013). Value at Risk. Theory and Practice. 2nd ed., 2013, Published online. Retrieved on 09.01.2026. Available at: https://www.value-at-risk.net/history-of-value-at-risk/

Hopkin P. (2018). Fundamentals of risk management: understanding, evaluating and implementing effective risk management. Kogan Page Publishers; 2018 Jul 3.

ISO. (2018). ISO 31000. Risk Management – Guidelines. Retrieved on 06.01.2026. Available at: https://www.iso.org/standard/65694.html

IVSC (2025). Statement Regarding Prudential Value for Real Estate, Retrieved on 22.01.2026. Available at:

https://ivsc.org/ivsc-statement-regar2025ding-prudential-value-for-real-estate/.

Jorion, P. (2006). Value at Risk: The New Benchmark for Managing Financial Risk, 3rd ed. McGraw Hill. ISBN 978-0-07-146495-6.

Manganelli S., Engle R.F. (2001). Value at Risk Models in Finance. European Central Bank, Working Paper No.75, August 2001. Retrieved on 09.01.2026. Available at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=356220

Marcoption (2023). Value At Risk (VAR) Limitations and Disadvantages. Retrieved on 21.01.2026. Available at: https://www.macroption.com/value-at-risk-var-limitations-disadvantages/.

Nocera, J. (January 4, 2009), Risk Mismanagement, The New York Times Magazine

Nordlund B. (2008), Valuation Performance Reporting in Property Companies According to IFRS. Doctoral thesis in Building and Real Estate Economics, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, 2008.- 136 p

Novak, S.Y. (2011). Extreme value methods with applications to finance. Chapman & Hall/CRC Press. ISBN 978-1-4398-3574-6.

Pajhede, Thor (2017). Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Generalized Markov Framework. Journal of Forecasting. 36 (5): 597–613. doi:10.1002/for.2456.

PIA (2017. Property Industry Alliance. Long-term Value Methodologies and Real Estate Lending. Available at: https://hubble-live-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/crefc/file_asset/file/289/Vision_R4_long_term_value_methodologies_report__June_2017_.pdf (Accessed on 15.01.2025);

Przetacznik S. (2022). The evolution of risk management The Małopolska School of Economics in Tarnów Research Papers Collection, 2022, 53(1–2), 95–107,

DOI: 10.25944/znmwse.2022.01-2.95107. Retrieved on 06.01.2026. Available at: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2131433.pdf.

Rafni, T., & Agustina, D. (2025). Risk Comparison in Optimal Portfolios: A Study of Value at Risk (VaR) and Tail Value at Risk (TVaR). Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting. https://doi.org/10.24036/mjmf.v3i1.40

RICS Guidance Note (2018). Bank Lending Valuations and Mortgage Lending Value. Available at: https:// www.rics.org/guidance, (accessed on 12 April 2024).

Roncalli Th. (2020). Handbook of Financial Risk Management,

https://DOI: 10.1201/9781315144597

Rushkovskiy M.V., Rasshyvalov D.P. (2025). Determinanty korporativnyh strategiy rysyk-menedgmenty bahatonatsionalnyh pidpriemstv energetychnoho sektory (In Ukrainian) Кyiv.: Vadeks, 2025. – 215 с.

Saputra D. et al. (2023). Value At Risk Analysis Using Historical Method and Monte Carlo Simulation in Banking and Mining Sector Companies. International Journal of Applied Management and Business, Vol.1, No.1, 2023, pp. 26-31. https://doi.org/10.54099/ijamb.v1i1.436

Shayya R., et al. (2023). Value-at-risk models: a systematic review of the literature. Journal of Risk. V. 25, number 4, April 2023, P. 1-23. Retrieved on 12.01.2026. Available at: https://www.risk.net/journal-of-risk/7956413/value-at-risk-models-a-systematic-review-of-the-literature.

Shiryaev A. N., et al (1995). Towards the theory of pricing of options of both European and American types. II. Continuous time. Theory of Probability and its Applications, 39:1, 61–102.

Taleb N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York: Random House. ISBN 978-1-4000-6351-2.

VaR (2025).Value-at-risk definition - Risk.net, 16, 2025, https://www.risk.net/definition/value-at-risk-var.

VDP (2026). Mortgage lending value - Verband Deutscher Pfandbriefbanken, Retrieved on 17.01.2026, available at https://www.pfandbrief.de/en/mortgage-lending-value/

WEF (2026). World Economic Forum. The Global Risks Report 2026. Retrieved on 02.02.2026, Available at: https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2026.pdf?_gl=1*l5oh1a*_up*MQ..*_gs*MQ..&gclid=Cj0KCQiA-YvMBhDtARIsAHZuUzI8VOXIvNKjvEajQfIVXTRTaVDdNLRDRbEukH6KMwlKB4-8BoMaRXEaAmPkEALw_wcB&gbraid=0AAAAAoVy5F7E2khXFMh67NrMaGCrNyY1C

Yakubovsky V.V., et al (2022). Stochastic Analytical Approach to the Time Factor Consideration in Assets Valuation. Actual Problems of International Relations, v.150, KNU named after Taras Shenchenko, 2022, p. 47-56; https://doi.org/10.17721/apmv.2022.1.50.47-56.

Yakubovsky V. V. Zhuk K.O. (2025). Time horizon role consideration in assets “prudent” and “cap” extremes estimation of stochastically evolving value. International Science Journal of Management, Economics & Finance. Vol. 4, No. 2, 2025, pp. 56-72. Doi: https://doi.org/10.46299/j.isjmef.20250402.06

Downloads

Published

01.04.2026

How to Cite

Yakubovsky, V., Rasshyvalov, D., & Bychkova, S. (2026). Dichotomy of value at risk and prudent value concepts in financial risk management. International Science Journal of Management, Economics & Finance, 5(2), 41–55. https://doi.org/10.46299/j.isjmef.20260502.05

Similar Articles

<< < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 > >> 

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.