The impact of international labour migration on the competitiveness of Ukrainian enterprises

Abstract

The article explores the radical transformation of migration processes in Ukraine under the impact of full-scale war – shifting from traditional cyclic labour mobility to unprecedented, forced displacement. It is established that by 2025–2026, this process has acquired the characteristics of a long-term demographic rupture. The study argues that unlike previous waves, the current migration shock is of an irreversible structural nature, accompanied by critical losses of human capital. The selective outflow of highly skilled professionals has evolved into a systemic deficit of specific competencies, posing risks to national economic security and defining the boundaries for the recovery of the business sector. The aim of the research is a quantitative assessment and modelling of the impact of migration waves on the competitiveness level of Ukrainian enterprises. The object of the analysis is the developmental dynamics of the entrepreneurial sector during 2010–2025. The methodological framework is based on the calculation of the proprietary integral Enterprise Competitiveness Index (ECI), constructed from labour productivity, financial performance, and innovation activity indicators. To identify causal relationships, econometric modelling via the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method was applied, incorporating dummy variables to account for the structural shocks of 2014 and 2022. The research results confirmed a statistically significant (p < 0.05) negative impact of migration on enterprise competitiveness. Econometric analysis revealed that an increase in cumulative migration by 1 million people leads to an average decrease in the ECI by 0.097 points. A «systemic gap» was identified in 2022, where the ECI dropped from 0.834 to 0.426 amid a sharp surge in migration scales. It is proven that the modern migration crisis causes not only a quantitative reduction in labour resources but also a qualitative degradation of human capital. Simultaneously, the labour shortage acts as a catalyst for technological modernization, automation, and digitalization. This indicates a transition from a low-cost labour model to a development strategy focused on high technological efficiency under labour supply constraints.