Adaptive strategies for the development of Ukraine’s agro-industrial complex under systemic shocks: an antifragile approach

Abstract

The article examines the development of Ukraine’s agro-industrial complex under systemic shocks caused by military actions, logistical constraints, and climate instability. The relevance of applying an antifragile approach as a methodological basis for the strategic transformation of the agricultural sector is substantiated. It is shown that current challenges not only increase risks but also create conditions for structural adjustment and efficiency improvement. Key factors influencing the functioning of the agro-industrial complex are analyzed, including external factors (disruptions of logistics channels, volatility of global markets) and internal factors (resource shortages, labor constraints, institutional imbalances). It is established that under crisis conditions, logistics becomes a determining factor of production profitability. The necessity of transitioning to a diversified development model based on the combination of resource-based, process-oriented, and result-oriented approaches is justified. The main directions of modernization are identified, including digitalization of agricultural production, development of deep processing, enhancement of energy autonomy, and expansion of financial inclusion. Particular attention is paid to human capital as a critical factor of long-term adaptability. It is proved that the implementation of antifragile strategies enables the agricultural sector not only to maintain its functioning under instability but also to create the preconditions for increasing competitiveness in the post-war period and for integration into the European economic space.