The «Phoenix-Innovation» model: econometric estimation of threshold transformations and post-industrial takeoff of the macrostructure, advancing the approaches of H. M. Dobrov»

Abstract

The article develops and econometrically verifies a non-linear model of the advanced development of the national economy under conditions of extreme economic shocks. The methodological framework of the study is based on a synthesis of structural dynamics theories, the concept of antifragility in complex systems, and the legacy of the Ukrainian school of systems analysis led by Academician H.M. Dobrov. The empirical basis of the study relies on a cleaned dataset representing the shares of industry and the services sector in the GDP of Ukraine, the USA, China, India, and the European Union countries for the 1990-2024 period. Within the scope of the research, several critical scientific tasks have been resolved. By calculating the parameters of central tendency and variability, the fact of deep cross-country structural polarization of space is proven, which refutes simplified linear hypotheses regarding market convergence. A rapid increase in the sample variance from 394.98 to 567.9 and an increase in the standard deviation to 23.83% are identified as an objective sign of changes in the internal development rates of systems, accompanied by the destruction of old inter-sectoral ties. The application of quartile analysis apparatus allowed for pinning down the precise threshold limits of structural breakdown irreversibility. A sequential drop in the median distribution axis from 28.5% to an historical low at the level of 16.55% – 16.85% in the 2022-2024 period, combined with a compression of the first quartile to 8.08%, undeniably demonstrates that the outdated industrial component has completely lost its role as a basic macroeconomic stabilizer. The stability of the upper distribution boundary (64% – 66.5%) proves that the market space expands exclusively within the high-technology sector, making attempts to restore old, raw-material-based manufacturing giants futile. Econometric estimation of higher-order moments of the distribution shape (an increase in right-skewness to ∼ 1 and a stably negative platykurtic excess kurtosis at the level of -0.64 to -0.7) allowed for the mathematical formalization of the non-linear nature of innovation diffusion. The right-sided skewness proves that the structure is subject to a power law, where development is driven by the isolated generation of technological «super-assets». This fully confirms H.M. Dobrov's propositions regarding the exponential accumulation of knowledge at breakthrough points. The combination of the distribution shape parameters under the conditions of the 2022-2024 global economic crisis became a direct mathematical proof of the manifestation of antifragility within the national economy. The economy proved capable of transforming the energy of physical asset destruction in heavy industry into a factor for the vertical takeoff and capitalization of the digital sector and industrial technologies. Based on the obtained results, the study substantiates that there is no alternative to deploying the author's «Phoenix-Innovation» model as a tool to transform Ukraine into a leading world-class technological outpost looking toward the 2030-2032 horizon. Scenario modeling confirmed that the success of the structural transition strictly depends on maintaining the control parameter - the structural shift intensity coefficient - at the critical threshold of λ ≥ 0.46. This ensures the exponential growth of four basic clusters («Code», «Iron», «Soft», «Defense») and guarantees achieving a high-tech share in GDP of no less than 36.2%.